ICAS Polling VII


April 1, 2020

SURVEY SHOWS
CURRENT US-SK ALLIANCE NOT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS YEARS
SMA NEGOTIATION FAILURE RISKS DEPARTURE OF US FORCES IF NOT MODERATED
"DENUCLEARIZATION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA" SHOULD
BE AMENDED TO "DENUCLEARIZATION OF NK"
COVID-19 PANDEMIC WILL NOT HURT US-SK ALLIANCE
THOUGH IT COULD DESTABLIZE NK

Washington, D.C. April 1, 2020 (ICAS) A seventh new poll conducted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) looks at the current state of the US-South Korea (SK) Alliance and possible US security policy implications that might arise out of the Corono Virus outbreak.

Conducted to an ICAS audience on the Hill, the poll shows that 84% of the respondents believe that the current state of the US-SK Alliance is NOT stronger than in the previous years. 28% of the respondents attributed it to President Moon, 25% to President Trump and 34% to other reasons. When asked whether SK would have gotten so swiftly the $60 billion per six-month bilateral currency swap agreement with the US in the absence of the US-SK Alliance, 84% of the respondents answered in the negative, and 13% in the affirmative.

More than a majority of the respondents think that an apparent impasse of the SMA (Special Measures Agreements) negotiation could initiate an onset of metastasizing into a disengagement of the US forces from Korea, while 34% hold an opposite view. When asked for a solution to the impasse, 9% of the respondents believe that SK should shoulder as asked by the US, 41% said the US moderate its demand for $5 billion, while 50% of the respondents answered with a decline/maybe/neither.

In the meantime, more than 60% of the respondents view that a phrase of "denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" ought to be amended to "denuclearization of North Korea" to more accurately and precisely reflect the original intent and the spirit of resolving the North Korea's nuclear issue at the time of its de novo onset.

An overwhelming majority of the respondents believe that the COVID-19 would not hurt the current state of the US-SK alliance. While a majority of those surveyed said that the pandemic might not impact the stability concern on the Korean Peninsula, 50% of the respondents replied that the pandemic could destabilize the NK government (with 41% believing it could not).

59% of the respondents do not foresee a potential terror threat on the Korean Peninsula by rogue actors using the Coronavirus, while 41% see it possible.

The survey was conducted from March 22, 2020 to April 1, 2020 via email with a moderate credibility interval. Supplemental graphic data are available on www.icasinc.org/strategy.html and www.icasinc.org/strategy/polling7.pptx.

Inquiry to ICAS@icasinc.org
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This page last modified April 14, 2020 jdb