LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MOON'S PEACE INITIATIVE
CONCERN ON NKG'S GOAL TO UNIFY THE PENINSULA ON ITS TERMS
DECLARATION OF END OF WAR WON'T BRING PEACE
SKG NOT MAKING BEST EFFORT TO FULFIL CONDITIONS FOR OPCON TRANSITION
POSSIBILITY OF NKG LAUNCHING A LIMITED ATTACK ON SEOUL
SKG OBLIVIOUS TO NKG'S VIOLATIONS OF HUMAN RIGHTS ON ITS PEOPLE
STRENGTHENING CAPACITY AND CAPABILITY OF UNC PRUDENT
Washington, D.C. December 26, 2020 (ICAS) — A fourteenth new poll conducted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) continues to identify issues surrounding the Korean Peninsula from a national security standpoint of the U.S.
Conducted to an ICAS audience on the Hill, the poll generally shows the respondents continue to have a lack of confidence in President Moon’s ability to bring about any meaningful progress in the “lasting peace” in the Korean Peninsula and share their concern on the unchanging goal of North Korea (NK) of unifying the Korean Peninsula under its terms while almost all respondents believe Finlandization of South Korea (SK) is not an option.
94% of respondents agree that Moon’s “lasting peace on the Peninsula” would not outlast the relative peace on the Peninsula since the Armistice on July 27, 1953. Similarly, 85% of the respondents show a lack of confidence that President Moon’s “End of War Declaration” initiative will realize his vision of “lasting peace” on the Korean Peninsula while 12% are confident.
91% of the respondents state that they would not echo the meme “Let the N[orth] have the weapons while the S[outh] has the economy and we [N & S] will forge ‘our nation’ together and live happily and strongly thereafter.”
67% of the respondents agree that SKG[overnment] is not making its best efforts to fulfill the conditions for the OpCon transition while 33% of the respondents disagree.
The respondents are evenly split (49% each) on the possible NKG[overnment]’s launching of a limited surprise attack on Seoul and initiate its “peace” negotiations with SKG under its terms.
91% of the respondents agree that the NKG would soon develop a MIRV capability on their ICBM and SLBM capability while 9% disagree.
Responding to the recent decline by Moon’s SKG to join a UN resolution that was drafted by the EU and co-sponsored by 58 countries including Japan on NKG’s human rights violations, 88% agree that SKG is not upholding the Founding Principles of the SK Constitution while 12% believe otherwise.
82% of the respondents view that it would be prudent to strengthen the UNC’s capacity and capability in preparation for a contingency situation. 18% disagree.
On the question of whether it would be good for SK to seriously consider establishing a nuclear parity with NK, 73% are against it while 24% think it is a good idea.
An overwhelming majority of the respondents (82%) agree that Moon’s peace initiative is not emanating from a position of power and strategic strength.
85% of the respondents think that Finlandization of SK would not be a good idea to navigate the complex and evolving reality of the geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia. 12% think it is a good idea for such a purpose.
The survey was conducted from November 27, 2020 to December 18, 2020 via email with a moderate credibility interval. Supplemental graphic data are available on www.icasinc.org/strategy.html.
Inquiry to ICAS@icasinc.org
About Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS)
ICAS was established in 1973, as a non-profit, non-partisan, and private educational and research organization and it is incorporated in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. ICAS is not an agent of any government and/or a foreign principal, and is solely supported by voluntary contributions. Its activities and programs rely on the private donations of the general public, i.e., individuals, foundations, and corporations. ICAS promotes pertinent relations and conducts appropriate activities with a special emphasis on multilateral relations between the United States and Asia-Pacific rim nations. Its membership includes individuals from varied sectors embracing academic, corporate, cultural, educational, international and other related fields. ICAS strives to provide public services pro bono publico.