ICAS Polling V


October 13, 2019

SURVEY SHOWS
NORTH KOREA WILL NOT COMPLY WITH THE US POLICY DEMANDS
NORTH KOREA WILL NOT ABANDON ITS GOAL OF UNIFYING THE KOREAN PENINSULA
JAPAN'S AND SOUTH KOREA'S GOING NUCLEAR OPPOSED
FIRST USE DOCTRINE OF US NUCLEAR BOMB UNSUPPORTED
NORTH KOREA'S RECENT MISSILE TESTS POSE SECURITY THREATS
INTER-KOREAN MILITARY AGREEMENT WILL NOT STRENGTHEN SECURITY

Washington, D.C. October 13, 2019 (ICAS) A fifth new poll conducted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) continues to identify how the current state of the select Korean Peninsula Issues are viewed vis--vis Japan (JP), North Korea (NK), South Korea (SK), and the US from a regional security perspective.

Conducted to an ICAS audience on the Hill, the poll shows that most of the respondents believe NK has not abandoned, and will not at any time soon abandon, its goal of unifying the Korean Peninsula under its own terms. That being said, the respondents oppose JP and SK going nuclear and the US considering first use doctrine of a nuclear bomb.

Specifically, 66% of the respondents do not believe that NK would comply with the US policy demands without a change of regime. Similarly, the same proportion believe NK will soon successfully develop a hypersonic ballistic missile system sooner rather than later, while an overwhelming majority of the respondents opposed to JP considering going nuclear (72%), SK going nuclear (69%) and the US considering first use doctrine of a nuclear bomb (72%).

Furthermore, 88% do not believe NKs Kim has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the JuChe ideology. 72% believe Kim will not abandon the strategy sooner rather than later. Interestingly, equal size of the respondents do not believe Kim has abandoned his objective to split the US-SK Alliance, get the US forces off the Korean Peninsula and conquer SK. 69% do not believe Kim will abandon the objective sooner rather than later if at all, while only 6% responded they believe Kim will abandon such objective.

With respect to the short-range ballistic missile tests and multiple rocket systems that NK has recently shown, an overwhelming majority of the respondents believe they are threatening to the security of SK (84%) and the US (78%), respectively.

On the question of whether the Inter-Korean Military Agreement of September 19, 2018 between NK and SK (IKMA) will strengthen the security of SK, a half of the respondents do not believe so, while 34% replied that the IKMA will strength SKs security. A similar split in the response is seen on the question of whether the IKMA will strengthen the security of the Korean Peninsula (38% yes vs 53% no).

The survey was conducted from October 1, 2019 to October 9, 2019 via email with a moderate credibility interval. Supplemental graphic data are available on www.icasinc.org/strategy.html and Powerpoint for Polling V.

Inquiry to ICAS@icasinc.org

###

About Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS)

ICAS was established in 1973, as a non-profit, non-partisan, and private educational and research organization and it is incorporated in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. ICAS is not an agent of any government and/or a foreign principal, and is solely supported by voluntary contributions. Its activities and programs rely on the private donations of the general public, i.e., individuals, foundations, and corporations. ICAS promotes pertinent relations and conducts appropriate activities with a special emphasis on multilateral relations between the United States and Asia-Pacific rim nations. Its membership includes individuals from varied sectors embracing academic, corporate, cultural, educational, international and other related fields. ICAS strives to provide public services pro bono publico.

This page last modified October 22, 2019 jdb