SKG NOT TO MOVE POSITIVELY TOWARDS USG POSITION IN SMA NEGOTIATION
UNIFICATION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA NOT DESIRABLE AT THIS TIME
“LOW LEVEL FEDERATION” WITH NK POSSIBLE
INDO-PACIFIC AND US SECURITY TO BENEFIT FROM NATO TYPE ALLIANCE
AND SK SHOULD PARTICIPATE
Washington, D.C. May 1, 2020 (ICAS) — An eighth new poll conducted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) looks at the current state and future of the US-South Korea (SK) alliance and the possible U.S. security policy implications against the backdrop of the general elections held in SK on April 15.
Conducted to an ICAS audience on the Hill, the poll shows that 74% of the respondents believe a unification of the Korean Peninsula is not desirable at this time. More than 90% of the respondents believe that SK ought to actively participate in the Indo-Pacific security operations of the US based on the US-SK Alliance, and 79% believe that a NATO type alliance system may definitely serve regional security and the US national security purpose in the Indo-Pacific theatre.
Looking at the current state and outlook of the US-SK Alliance, 71% of the respondents view that the SK Government (SKG) would not move positively towards the position of the US Government (USG) demand over the cost-sharing agreement. 63% of the respondents believe that the SKG would not increase the support for North Koreans seeking to escape out of NK. When asked if they would be surprised if the incumbent SKG initiate a Constitutional amendment which may pave a road towards a "low-level federation" with NK, 61% of the respondents replied in the negative. Also, 74% replied that they would not be surprised if anti-US and anti-Japan sentiments manifest prominently in SK.
Notwithstanding the challenges faced by the US-SK Alliance, almost everyone who responded (97%) believe it is worth defending SK. 50% of the respondents view Trump might acquiesce Kim holding onto the nukes and missiles so long as Kim commits not to threaten the US. 63% do not believe Trump just might acquiesce Kim quietly taking over SK, while 37% of the respondents believe so.
The survey was conducted from April 16, 2020 to April 28, 2020 via email with a moderate credibility interval. Supplemental graphic data are available on www.icasinc.org/strategy.html and www.icasinc.org/strategy/polling8.pptx.
Inquiry to ICAS@icasinc.org
ICAS was established in 1973, as a non-profit, non-partisan, and private educational and research organization and it is incorporated in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. ICAS is not an agent of any government and/or a foreign principal, and is solely supported by voluntary contributions. Its activities and programs rely on the private donations of the general public, i.e., individuals, foundations, and corporations. ICAS promotes pertinent relations and conducts appropriate activities with a special emphasis on multilateral relations between the United States and Asia-Pacific rim nations. Its membership includes individuals from varied sectors embracing academic, corporate, cultural, educational, international and other related fields. ICAS strives to provide public services pro bono publico.